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SUMMARY
The Office of the Auditor General has conducted a performance audit of
enrollment management at Arizona’s universities. This audit was conducted pursuant to
a June 10, 1996, resolution of the Joint Legislative Audit Committee, and is the fourth in
a series of four performance audits of the universities performed in response to the
requirements of A.R.S. §41-2958. The previous audits dealt with the universities’
space utilization, research parks, and auxiliary enterprises.
Arizona’s three universities, Arizona State University (ASU),
Northern Arizona University (NAU), and the University of Arizona (UA), serve more than
100,000 students at three main campuses, four branch campuses, and other sites statewide.
Similar to the State’s population increase, enrollment at the universities during the
1980s grew significantly and is likely to continue growing. However, the universities have
limited space on their main campuses to accommodate substantial growth. As a result, they
have managed enrollment through forecasting and planning for enrollment changes.
Arizona’s University System
Can Improve Enrollment Forecasts
(See pages 7 through 12)
Arizona’s universities can improve the enrollment forecasts they
use to plan for future enrollment growth. Although several forecasts have been developed
to estimate enrollment for Arizona’s universities, they appear to have overestimated
enrollment growth. The most widely cited forecast, developed in 1991, predicted that
enrollment demand would likely grow by 37,000 to 77,000 students who would enroll in the
Arizona University System by the year 2010, with a "most likely" estimate of
55,000 students. This estimate was used to support initiatives such as the development of
new branch campuses. When the Board of Regents later determined that this estimate was
unrealistic, the forecast was revised in 1995 to predict that the additional students
would not enroll until 2015. The Board of Regents has discussed updating the forecasts;
however, a specific date has not been established.
Although the model’s forecasts appear to have overestimated
enrollment demand, revising it may be costly because it is complex and would need to be
restructured. Instead of revising the current model, the universities could explore other,
simpler approaches to forecasting enrollment. Other university systems have used different
forecasting techniques, which are often less costly to implement and maintain, since they
are not as complex as Arizona’s model. In addition, other university systems update
their long-term forecasts more regularly than the Arizona university system and one
produces campus-by-campus forecasts, in contrast to Arizona’s systemwide approach.
Regardless of the forecasting model Arizona’s universities use, they should
supplement the forecasts with additional research on enrollment trends and demand for
Arizona’s universities.
Universities Need to Revise Plan for Meeting Growth
(See pages 13 through 20)
In 1993, a commission established by the Arizona Board of Regents
developed a plan that recommended a set of strategies for the universities to manage
future enrollment growth. The universities appear to be ahead of schedule in implementing
some of the commission’s strategies, such as those associated with increasing their
evening and weekend program offerings. However, they have experienced difficulties
attracting students to their branch campuses. In addition, the universities do not know if
new programs, taught through technology such as the Internet, are accommodating the
predicted enrollment growth or attracting additional students who would otherwise not have
enrolled at the university.
The universities should revisit the existing enrollment growth plan and
ensure that it reflects current enrollment data. A revised plan is needed, since
enrollments anticipated for some strategies may never meet projections. For example, it
appears unlikely that UA’s branch campus in Sierra Vista would serve the anticipated
4,000 to 5,000 students. In addition to developing a new enrollment growth plan, the
universities and the Board of Regents should continue to work with other higher-education
agencies in the State to plan for statewide enrollment growth. Other states, such as
California, have developed plans that describe how its higher-education agencies will
collaborate to meet future enrollment growth statewide.
ASU West Can Do More
to Increase Enrollment
(See pages 21 through 25)
Although its enrollment was planned to accommodate up to 10,000
students, ASU West’s enrollment growth has been slow and limited. With little room
available on the ASU main campus, ASU West provides a unique opportunity to help manage
enrollment overflow from this campus. However, ASU West’s enrollment has not
increased during the last five years. Additionally, many students who live near the ASU
West campus enroll at the ASU main campus instead of ASU West.
Several factors have contributed to ASU West’s difficulties in
attracting students. For example, the campus offers only a limited number of courses and
programs, which makes recruiting students difficult. Additionally, although the West
campus is a branch of ASU, it is not as integrated with the main campus as it could be,
which can cause difficulties for students enrolled at both campuses. Similar departments
at the two campuses do not always accept each other’s courses, and therefore, course
credits do not always transfer between programs at the campuses. To increase enrollment at
ASU West, administrators should ensure that students’ course credits transfer between
programs at the schools. In addition, administrators should consider several options, such
as transferring or adding programs to the campus, or offering students incentives to
enroll there.
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